So I removed my PCIe m.2 wifi card then went to sleep, when I woke up and tried booting into Qubes, it allowed me to enter disk pw but then crashed before reaching login. I forgot that I recently made an untested hardware change.
I retried a few times eventually recording the screen’s boot messages in slo-mo. I noticed the failure was shortly after auto-starting qubes. When I removed my wifi card it changed the PCIe order and was trying to autostart my net VM with some other piece of critical hardware.
I reinserted my wifi card and it now boots. I think disabling autostart in grub would also prevent the crash, but I did not test. I’m not exactly sure how PCIe bus ordering works, but it appears that if I assume the next device address was assigned it means I was attempting to passthrough the whole chipset!